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Is the 2017 cotton spinning market full of uncertainty? Industry authority to grasp the pulse trend

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  • Time of issue:2018-01-27 16:21
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(Summary description)On March 27th, the Fourth Executive Council Enlargement Meeting of the Fifth China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the 2017 Cotton Textile Market Situation Analysis Meeting were held in Changzhou, Jiangsu.

Is the 2017 cotton spinning market full of uncertainty? Industry authority to grasp the pulse trend

(Summary description)On March 27th, the Fourth Executive Council Enlargement Meeting of the Fifth China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the 2017 Cotton Textile Market Situation Analysis Meeting were held in Changzhou, Jiangsu.

  • Categories:Industry News
  • Author:
  • Origin:
  • Time of issue:2018-01-27 16:21
  • Views:
Information

On March 27th, the Fourth Executive Council Enlargement Meeting of the Fifth China Cotton Textile Industry Association and the 2017 Cotton Textile Market Situation Analysis Meeting were held in Changzhou, Jiangsu.

Xie Ming, President of Jiangsu Textile Industry Association, Duan Xiaoping, Vice President of China National Textile and Apparel Council, President of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, Wang Shengmin, Deputy Director of Agricultural Products Price Division, Price Department of National Development and Reform Commission, Yu Xiaoxin, Director of Public Inspection Division I of China Fiber Inspection Bureau, Ye Jianchun, Vice President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association, Zhu Jianjun, General Manager of Zhongheng Dayao Textile Technology Co., Ltd., Li Nan, General Manager of Cotton Department of Louis Dreyfus (China) Co., Ltd., and other guests Representatives of cotton textile enterprises attended the meeting.

At this conference, the guests discussed the current hot topics in the cotton textile industry, such as the domestic cotton textile market, the trend of foreign cotton markets, and the changes in the cotton target price subsidy policy.

1. 2017 textile industry forecast

Duan Xiaoping, Vice President of China Textile Industry Federation and President of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association: There are no obvious signs of recovery in the textile industry

In 2016, the economic benefits of the textile industry were steadily slowing down, structural adjustments were significantly accelerated, the global layout trend was obvious, the domestic sales growth rate was basically flat, and the operation quality and efficiency improved. Duan Xiaoping said that at present, the signs of the textile industry's recovery are not obvious. The performance of enterprises in 2016 was not as good as statistical data. It is still too early to say "industry recovery".

In 2017, the global economy is expected to grow, and the prospects of advanced economies will improve. Emerging markets are still the core force of economic growth, but market risks are also increasing. Internationally, various factors such as US President Trump's New Deal, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, and European elections have made world trade growth extremely difficult. Compared with the international market, the domestic market also presents both opportunities and challenges. The acceleration of my country’s urbanization process, the liberalization of the national two-child policy, the advancement of Internet integration, and the increased potential of the light luxury market, have promoted my country’s domestic textile industry market. The expansion of the textile industry, along with the decline in the proportion of people’s clothing expenditures, the deepening of rational consumption concepts, and people’s pursuit of cost-effectiveness, has made the development of the textile industry facing huge challenges.

Duan Xiaoping predicts that in 2017, international demand is expected to pick up, driven by the United States. In terms of domestic sales, Duan Xiaoping pointed out that macroeconomic stability and income growth will continue to expand domestic sales in the workplace. If the opportunities for consumption upgrades can be grasped, product quality will be improved, costs will be reduced, and the retail end will meet consumer experience, and the domestic demand market can maintain a certain level of growth.

2. Analysis of the domestic cotton textile market

Zhu Beina, President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association:

From adapting to the new normal to leading the new normal

Since the second half of last year, the market for the cotton textile industry has generally been better than in the same period in 2015. Product prices have risen, but this is not entirely driven by downstream demand. Enterprises should have a clear understanding. At the beginning of 2017, cotton textile enterprises performed well as a whole, product inventory levels were low, orders were sufficient, and the prosperity index rebounded.

The use of chemical fiber raw materials in the industry is more and more widespread. Cotton textile companies are more enthusiastic about chemical fiber raw materials, have more abundant products, and reduce risks. The confidence of market entities began to pick up. With the advancement of the cotton system reform, high-levy and low-deduction reform, factors such as the steady narrowing of the internal and external cotton price gap have played a supporting role in the improvement of domestic cotton textile enterprises. At present, investment in Xinjiang is still growing, the pace of enterprises going out is steadily proceeding, industry transfer and investment tend to be rational, and market dominance is becoming stronger and stronger.

In the case of various unfavorable factors in the market, companies actively respond to the "three products" strategy, actively adapt to the new normal, and in the process of expanding profit margins, from the pursuit of speed to the pursuit of quality, from reducing costs to innovative development, from focusing on development The speed is so fast that it focuses on improving the added value of products. It can be said that at present, enterprises have begun to lead the new normal.

Ye Jianchun, Vice President of China Cotton Textile Industry Association:

The competitiveness of the domestic cotton yarn market is gradually increasing

According to statistics from China Cotton Textile Industry Association and China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, in 2016, cotton fiber used in cotton textiles was 7.15 million tons, an increase of 6% year-on-year; non-cotton fibers (including polyester staple fiber and viscose staple fiber) were 12.63 million tons, an increase year-on-year 0.2%; a total of 19.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%; cotton fiber accounted for 36%, yarn output was 18.84 million tons.

Since the announcement of the release of reserve cotton in April 2016, domestic and foreign cotton prices have gradually converged. After the release of reserve cotton at the end of September, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton once again widened to around 2,000 yuan/ton in October. At present, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is about 1,000 yuan/ton. As the reserve cotton starts to be put into use, the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton is expected to be further narrowed under the influence of the round-out pricing mechanism.

The reserve cotton began to be put into use on March 6. As the put work progressed, textile companies slowed down the pace of bidding, and the average daily transaction volume and transaction price of reserve cotton continued to fall. The lower transaction price in rounds has affected the spot market. Sales have slowed down, and the price has been lowered by 100-200 yuan/ton. At present, the delivery price of Xinjiang’s “Shuang 29” hand-picked cotton platform is about 16,000 yuan/ton, but it is of high quality. Cotton prices remain firm. Futures, spot prices, and round-out prices affect each other, the downstream support is insufficient, the wait-and-see mood of enterprises is strong, and the cotton quality is good, the price still has a great advantage.

In 2016, affected by factors such as the tightening of quotas, the narrowing of domestic and foreign cotton price differences, and the release of reserve cotton, my country's cumulative imported cotton was 896,600 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 575,900 tons, a decrease of 39.11%. In 2017, as the Ministry of State issued additional quotas and the price gap between domestic and foreign cottons narrowed, it is expected that cotton imports in 2017 will not change much from 2016. It is expected that cotton usage will increase, but the increase is limited. The import of cotton yarn is closely related to the import of cotton. At present, the import volume of cotton yarn in my country is also declining. As the price difference between internal and external cotton decreases, the price advantage of imported yarn will weaken, and the competitive advantage of domestic cotton yarn will gradually increase.

3. How does the cotton target price subsidy change?

Wang Shengmin, Deputy Director, Agricultural Product Price Division, Price Department, National Development and Reform Commission:

The target price subsidy policy is continuously optimized

The pilot work of my country’s cotton target price reform was completed in 2016. This pilot policy has ensured the basic income of cotton farmers and played a very good role in the reform of supply measurement. my country’s cotton production is concentrated in Xinjiang, and cotton is developing in the direction of high quality and better price. . The three-year pilot project ended in 2016. During the evaluation process of the cotton target price reform pilot, some problems were also discovered. For example, the price was fixed for a year, the adjustment was too frequent, and the cotton subsidy method was still unscientific. How to change it? and Will the next cotton target price subsidy be linked to cotton quality?

Wang Shengmin said that on March 17, the "Notice on Deepening the Reform of the Target Price of Cotton" jointly issued by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance made some adjustments to the reform of the target price of cotton, including the target price of subsidies that must have changed from the previous year. Three years are fixed, the cotton target price level is determined according to the production cost of the past three years plus reasonable income, the subsidy method is adjusted and optimized, and the upper limit of the number of cotton that enjoys the target price subsidy in Xinjiang is managed, and the upper limit of the subsidy amount is the base period (2012-2014) for national cotton 85% of the average output.

In the next step, the target cotton price subsidy plan is to study the reform of the cotton subsidy policy in the Mainland, and to provide appropriate subsidies with appropriate policies for the cultivation of cotton in the Mainland. Implement Xinjiang policies, test results, track them in time, and allow local governments to test methods of cotton price subsidies.

Yu Xiaoxin, Director of Public Inspection Division 1, China Fiber Inspection Bureau:

my country’s cotton quality has improved significantly

From 2011 to 2016, the average length of Xinjiang Cotton Public Inspection was 28.78mm, 28.53mm, 28.70mm, 28.71mm, 28.56mm, 29.05mm. The micronaire value of Xinjiang cotton is increasing year by year, reflecting the gradual thickening of cotton fiber. Other inspection indicators, such as color grade, are better than those in the mainland.

It can be seen that the length of cotton decreased significantly during the cotton purchasing and storage period. After the implementation of the cotton target price reform policy, the quality of cotton in Xinjiang increased significantly (the length declined due to weather in 2015). Among them, the average cotton length in 2016 was the best in recent years. In 2016, the percentage of cotton with a length of 30mm and above reached 11.59%, and from 2011 to 2015, the percentage of cotton with a length of 30mm and above Compared to the highest year, it is only 5%.

According to Xiaoxin's analysis, the factors affecting cotton quality are first of all policy factors, which have a guiding effect on cotton quality. The second is the influence of climate, the third is the influence of cotton varieties and planting factors, and the last is the influence of cotton processing methods. He specifically pointed out that currently about 70% of the machine-picked cotton in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, there is a big difference between the machine-picked cotton planting method and the hand-picked cotton planting method, but there is no obvious difference in the processing method, which is very harmful to the cotton fiber. Big.

Yu Xiaoxin suggested that we should continue to deepen the reform of the cotton target price, continue to guide cotton to price based on quality, pay equal attention to quantity and quality, implement the separation of price and compensation, and guide cotton production with the needs of textile enterprises. Strengthen cotton variety management and large-scale planting to improve cotton uniformity and consistency. Use cotton planting and processing methods that match the machine-picked cotton technology to comprehensively improve cotton quality.

Yu Xiaoxin, Director of Public Inspection Division 1, China Fiber Inspection Bureau:

Guarantee the speed of public inspection of the reserve cotton this year

Reserved cotton rounds: The reserve cotton is subject to bag inspection, which is welcomed by textile companies. In 2016, only two quality complaints were filed for the reserved cotton rounds. In this year’s rotation, in order to avoid insufficient supply, the China Fiber Inspection Bureau has started the 2017 cotton reserve inspection from October 2016. Therefore, this year’s cotton reserve will be released. According to the current rhythm, China Fiber Inspection The bureau can guarantee the speed of public inspection and ensure that the cotton photographed by the enterprise can be released from the warehouse as soon as possible.

Sun Yingan, Chairman of Hubei Xiaomian Industrial Group Co., Ltd. Liability Company:

It is recommended to reduce the cost of reserve cotton

Sun Yingan introduced that Xiao Cotton Company mainly produces 5-100 counts of pure cotton yarn. Every year, the company needs a large amount of reserve cotton, and 80% of the company's raw materials come from reserve cotton. Last year, the method of carrying out the bag inspection for the reserve cotton did ensure the quality of the reserve cotton purchased by the company. The company was very satisfied with this.

Sun Yingan said that the advancement of the reserve cotton rotation, various tasks are constantly being improved, but personally think that the price of 45 yuan/ton for the reserve cotton is slightly higher, and it is recommended to reduce the rotation cost of the reserve cotton.

5. Forecast of domestic cotton market demand

Li Nan, general manager of the cotton department of Louis Dreyfus (China) Co., Ltd.:

The world's cotton transitions from overproduction and sales to a gap in production and sales

The world cotton industry has reached a juncture of transformation. The world cotton area has dropped from 36.11 million hectares in 2011/2012 to 29.31 million hectares in 2016/2017, a drop of 20%. The low price is the price of cotton consumption from 2011/2012. 22.7 million tons rose to 24.5 million tons in 2016/2017, an increase of 8%. Overproduction and sales have turned into a gap in production and sales. By the end of this year, the world year-end inventory had fallen from the record of 24.4 million tons in 2014/2015 to 19.6 million tons, a 20% drop. At present, world cotton consumption is 8% more than production, but the growth is slow. Two-thirds of the world's polyester production capacity is in China, and the price is only half of cotton. The amount of chemical fiber used in China's textile production has increased, and world cotton consumption has gradually recovered to 24 million tons. The world's cotton production is only 22 million tons. China's cotton policy has had a huge impact on consumption, and the growth of world cotton consumption has been slow.

Looking forward to 2016/2017, world cotton consumption should once again exceed production. World cotton consumption is expected to increase by 2 to 3%. China's low-price reserve cotton rotation should promote consumption, and world year-end inventory is expected to drop by 1.5 million to 1.7 million. Ton. It is estimated that my country’s future cotton production and sales gap will be around 3 million tons. The National Reserve Cotton may reach a relatively low level in 2018/2019. Assuming that it is in the range of 2.6 to 3.3 million tons, the reserves cannot meet the production and sales gap and can only increase production or Import to solve.

6. ​​Forecast of hot fabrics in 2017

Zhu Jianjun, General Manager of Zhongheng Dayao Textile Technology Co., Ltd.:

Downstream demand determines upstream production strategy

Zhu Jianjun analyzed the characteristics of yarn and cloth products in the downstream market of the cotton textile industry. He said: “In 2017/2018, the trend of cotton fiber woven products will be smaller and smaller. Elasticity, super elasticity and super softness have become the biggest demand. Yarns must be able to cover black and white, which means that they can be dyed black and can also be bleached." He predicts that in 2017/2018, special coated fabrics, double layers Cloth, four-sided stretch fabric, high-elastic twill, jacquard, hollow fabric, single-sided dyed fabric, flash fabric, etc. will become the popular trend of textile and apparel fabrics.

Zhu Jianjun believes that good companies have several major characteristics, such as good raw materials, good products, and innovative models. And companies that do good products have the characteristics of good quality consistency, good supply continuity, and fast product updates. To make a good product, the raw materials must first be stable, otherwise the orders will be easy to lose. Make your own characteristics and main products. Otherwise, it will be easy to have a large amount of inventory.

In addition, the meeting reviewed and approved the changes in the governing units and member units of the China Cotton Textile Industry Association.

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